The IMF’s updated staff-consultation report indicates that India’s path to becoming a $5 trillion economy has been pushed back by a year. While earlier estimates had projected reaching that mark by FY28, the revised forecast sets the milestone for FY29. The shift stems largely from weaker-than-expected dollar-denominated growth, combined with a more pronounced depreciation of the rupee relative to the US dollar — factors that reduce the dollar value of India’s GDP even if real growth remains robust. Under new projections, India is expected to cross the $4 trillion mark in FY26 and reach approximately $4.96 trillion in FY28 — just short of the $5 trillion threshold. This underscores how currency fluctuations and nominal-growth dynamics are as crucial as real growth in determining when India achieves major global-economy benchmarks.