A “Goldilocks combination” — where weather and farming conditions are “just right” — has played a key role in keeping food inflation contained in India during 2025-26. The phrase refers to an optimal balance of factors, much like the children’s tale where Goldilocks seeks things that are neither too much nor too little.

In 2025, India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall throughout the main rainy season, recharging reservoirs, farm ponds and groundwater. At the same time, temperatures stayed closer to long-term averages, avoiding the heat extremes that can stress crops. This favourable “Goldilocks” weather has supported strong germination and growth in rabi crops like wheat, mustard and maize, raising prospects of record harvests and easing supply pressures.

Those conditions helped food inflation — which had surged above 8 % in 2023-24 due to drought and heat stress — turn negative in 2025. Retail prices for vegetables, pulses and staples have eased, underpinned by abundant crops and comfortable stock levels of rice and wheat.

While favourable weather isn’t the only factor — domestic stocks and global supply stability also matter — the Goldilocks combination has been a central driver in keeping food prices affordable for consumers, highlighting how climate and agriculture intertwine with economic trends.