India faced a significant setback in their World Test Championship (WTC) final aspirations after losing the fourth Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) to Australia in Melbourne by 184 runs. While South Africa has already secured a spot in the final, Australia’s victory moved them closer to a second consecutive WTC final.

Currently, Australia is second on the standings with 118 points and a point percentage (PCT) of 61.46, while India is third with 114 points and a PCT of 52.78. However, a scenario exists where both teams could finish with identical points and PCT.

WTC 2023-25 Scenarios

Australia can accumulate a maximum of 154 points if they win their remaining three Tests (1 vs India, 2 vs Sri Lanka). One win from these matches would guarantee their spot in the WTC final at Lord’s in 2025. If India wins the Sydney Test and Sri Lanka defeats Australia 2-0, India could overtake Australia to claim the second spot.

If India and Australia end with the same 126 points and a PCT of 55.26—requiring an Indian win in Sydney and a 0-0 draw in Sri Lanka vs. Australia—the finalist will be determined by series wins during the cycle. Both teams currently have three series wins, so the percentage of points earned in away matches will break the tie.

Although India can no longer win the BGT this cycle, a win in Sydney could help them retain the title and stay in contention for the WTC final at Lord’s in June 2025.